Arizona Tribune - Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro face off in knife-edge election

From villages deep in the Amazon rainforest to the agricultural heartlands in the south and sprawling urban favelas, Brazilians cast their votes, many of them fed-up with the familiar choices.

Lula, almost 81, is seeking a fourth term in an election which he has branded a battle between democracy and "barbarism", while warning voters that Brazil's sovereignty is at stake in the face of pressure from US President Donald Trump.

He is facing a tough battle against right-wing senator Bolsonaro, 45, who was picked to run by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his failed 2022 re-election bid.

Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old caregiver, told AFP she had planned to vote for Lula as she always has. But "when I got there, I switched to Bolsonaro. Just to see what happens, to see if anything changes."

Both candidates have extremely high rejection rates in the deeply polarized nation.

Opinion polls show neither Lula or Bolsonaro is likely to score more than 50 percent -- the threshold required to win in the first round on Sunday. They and are neck-and-neck in an October 25 runoff.

Four years ago, polls underestimated the vote count for Jair Bolsonaro and Lula won the runoff by a razor-thin margin.

Brazil uses electronic voting machines, and results are expected within a few hours after polls close at 5pm (2000 GMT).

- Trump watching -

Bolsonaro's rallies featured massive US flags and images of Trump, who has said he is "very closely" watching the election, but did not endorse Bolsonaro.

The US president has wielded tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasilia over complaints ranging from the trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro to alleged unfair trade practices.

Lula has repeatedly warned him not to "meddle" in the elections.

He also argued that Brazil would retain control over the development of its vast reserves of rare earths, which have attracted interest from Washington and other foreign powers.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pitched Brazil as a "solution" to ease US dependence on China for these critical minerals.

"I support Lula because he stands up for the poor. Flavio will sell our Brazil off to foreigners," said Victor Jorge Martins, a 25-year-old event planner.

- 'Things are terrible' -

Buoyed by his father's legacy, Bolsonaro leads in the south, among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians.

He has vowed a hardline approach to crime and fiscal austerity amid rising public debt.

"Brazil cannot bear any more suffering, such high taxes, so many women killed. I want to free the Brazilian people," he said after voting in Rio de Janeiro.

In a cascade of scandals that dominated the campaign, it emerged that Bolsonaro was under investigation for corruption over the financing of the biopic "Dark Horse" about his father.

For many voters, this did little to move the needle.

"Things are truly terrible. As far as I'm concerned, the left just doesn't work anymore," said tech worker Joao Batista, 36, in the Rocinha favela, saying he was fed up with the "horrible" expense of basic goods "that should be affordable for the average citizen."

- Defending nature -

Lula is more popular in Brazil's poor northeast, among low-income voters, Catholics, and women.

Revered for social welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty, he made a dramatic comeback to office in the 2022 elections after being jailed on a corruption conviction that was later thrown out on procedural grounds.

Riots in Brasilia and the botched coup attempt after his election allowed Lula to cast himself as guardian of Brazil's democracy.

In his third term he has overseen a drop in inflation and unemployment, but voters complain about a high cost of living.

Lula has also sharply curbed deforestation in the Amazon.

Despite a growing number of extreme weather events in Brazil, climate change has been absent from the campaign.

"We Indigenous people suffer greatly from the environmental impacts" of climate change, said Tainara da Costa Cruz, 22, who lives along the banks of the Rio Negro in Amazonas state and voted for Lula.

"That is why it is important to elect a candidate who defends our territory, who defends nature."

F.Wilson--AT