Arizona Tribune - Trump faces first electoral setback after Wisconsin Supreme Court vote

Two months into his barnstorming return to the White House, Trump celebrated victory in a pair of House races in Florida which remained in Republican hands.

But in the first real electoral test of his polarizing presidency, his all-out effort to lodge a new Republican on the Wisconsin Supreme Court fell flat, as liberal judge Susan Crawford came out ahead of Trump-backed Brad Schimel, according to US media.

Trump appeared to ignore the results on social media, highlighting a separate Wisconsin ballot initiative requiring voters to present photo identification to cast a ballot.

"Voter I.D. just approved in Wisconsin election...this is a big win for Republicans, maybe the biggest win of the night," he posted on TruthSocial late Tuesday.

- 'Fate of civilization' -

Musk, who has spearheaded Trump's attempts to gut much of the US government in a right-wing cost-cutting drive, went to Wisconsin to drum up support for Schimel.

"It's like one of those strange situations where a seemingly small election would determine the fate of Western civilization here," Musk said in a discussion on his social media platform X on Tuesday.

The highlight of his weekend visit to the upper Midwestern state reprised a tactic seen during his efforts to help Trump defeat Democrat Kamala Harris in November -- handing out money to anyone who signed a petition against so-called "activist judges."

Musk, too, refrained from commenting on Schimel's loss despite spending millions on the campaign, instead taking to X to post "Yeah!" on news of Wisconsin passing the voter ID initiative.

Senator Bernie Sanders, a major force on the left, told supporters on X they had "the power to REJECT Musk and the oligarchy buying our elections."

Beyond testing the public mood, the Wisconsin result will decide whether the state's Supreme Court -- which rules on things like voting district boundaries -- tilts majority left or right.

In Florida, two seats in the US House of Representatives were up for grabs to fill vacancies in Republican strongholds, left by Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and failed nominee for attorney general, Matt Gaetz.

On Tuesday evening, US media called the race for Florida's sixth district in favor of Republican Randy Fine, with Trump tweeting: "Congratulations Randy, a great WIN against a massive CASH AVALANCHE."

Shortly after, media outlets also called the special election in Florida's first district for Trump-backed Republican Jimmy Patronis.

Trump took credit for his party's victory in both deep red districts, posting on social media that "the Trump endorsement, as always, proved far greater than the Democrats forces of evil."

Democrats have been adrift since losing the presidency to Trump and both chambers of Congress in November, and had hoped that a decent showing in Florida and a win in Wisconsin could spark a comeback.

In Florida, they were defeated by double-digit percentage margins in both special elections.

But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries offered an optimistic view, telling broadcaster MSNBC that the smaller margins in districts won handily by Trump "should have my Republican colleagues quaking in their boots."

- Big stakes, bigger money -

Illustrating the stakes of the contest in Wisconsin, the race has set a spending record -- much of that in advertising and attempts, particularly by Musk, to drive turnout.

Musk, who spent roughly $277 million on Trump's 2024 election campaign, presented checks of $1 million to two voters and $100 each to other voters who signed his petition.

According to the Brennan Center for Justice, more than $53.3 million has been spent by Schimel and his backers, including $12.2 million from Musk's America PAC.

Crawford's campaign and those backing her have spent an estimated $45.1 million.

The spending has made the Wisconsin race the most expensive in US judicial history, the center said.

Billionaire Musk's Green Bay rally on the weekend drew an enthusiastic crowd, but the South African-born oligarch's role in Wisconsin elections provoked as much resistance as support.

At a pro-Crawford rally, 65-year-old retired electrical engineer Rob Patterson held up a sign showing Musk giving a straight-armed salute.

"Our Supreme Court is not for sale," the sign read.

A.O.Scott--AT