Arizona Tribune - Duterte's future in balance as Philippine election season kicks off

Talk show hosts, movie stars and a preacher jailed on sex-trafficking charges are among the typically colourful group of candidates vying for a dozen open Senate seats.

While the May 12 vote will fill more than 18,000 posts nationwide, it's would-be senators who are facing a duty few bargained for -- as jurists in the impeachment trial of former president Rodrigo Duterte's eldest daughter.

The vice president, whose alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos has imploded spectacularly, was impeached by the House of Representatives last Wednesday on charges of "violation of the constitution, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, and other high crimes".

Sixteen votes in the 24-seat Senate are needed to deliver a conviction that would bar Duterte from public office and a presidential run she says she is "seriously considering".

Senate President Francis Escudero has said it is "almost a sure thing" the trial will not finish before a new congress takes over on July 28.

"The composition of the next Senate will be crucial" to the trial's outcome, Dennis Coronacion, head of the political science department of Manila's University of Santo Tomas, told AFP.

On Thursday, the Duterte camp put out a statement urging voters to "choose wisely who they will vote for, especially in the Senate, where the fate of VP Sara will be decided".

- Harassment 'or worse' -

Tuesday's campaign kick-off is limited to Senate hopefuls and candidates for so-called party-list seats -- those reserved for groups ranging from taxi drivers to midwives.

Electioneering will kick into higher gear late next month when candidates for the remaining 254 House seats and thousands of local positions launch their bids for office, filling the streets with brightly coloured posters and the airwaves with catchy jingles.

But the carnival-like atmosphere belies a darker side.

With control over local purse strings in the balance, even lower-level elected offices can be bitterly contested, with occasionally deadly results.

Police say they are already investigating 12 incidents of possible "election-related" violence, including the shooting death of a candidate for a local post.

Police spokeswoman Colonel Jean Fajardo told reporters last month that three to five "private armed groups" that were backing politicians she did not identify were being monitored.

"These can do a lot to... harass candidates or worse, create violence to influence the outcome of the election for a certain area," she said.

In the 2022 presidential election, police said three security guards and one voter were shot dead in separate incidents on the southern island of Mindanao.

Hours before polls opened, another nine people were wounded in a grenade attack at a polling station.

- Popularity contest -

A survey by pollster Social Weather Stations last month listed job creation, food security, the health system, education and workers' rights as Filipinos' top concerns.

But the contest for Senate seats often boils down to name recognition, something polls suggest will continue.

Congressman and former television personality Erwin Tulfo and talk show host brother Ben Tulfo are both favourites to join a third sibling, Senator Raffy Tulfo, as members of the senior chamber.

Self-proclaimed "Son of God" preacher Apollo Quiboloy -- awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges -- is polling poorly, while former boxing champion Manny Pacquiao is looking to return to the Senate on a slate backed by President Marcos, whose sister Imee is polling well after early struggles.

According to the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, the Marcos clan is one of at least 24 families running five or more candidates in a country long dominated by political dynasties.

In the southern city of Davao, multiple Duterte family members will seek office as they attempt to maintain control of their traditional stronghold.

Rodrigo Duterte, who will turn 80 before election day, is running for his old job, mayor of Davao -- the city that launched his political career.

If he wins, he could be joined at city hall by his son Sebastian, who is seeking to become Davao's vice mayor.

E.Hall--AT