Arizona Tribune - Stocks 'take breather' as traders eye Fed rate signal

US stocks are on track to have their best month of this year after recent economic statistics have pointed to cooling inflation.

But traders moved more cautiously Monday as they await the minutes from the Fed's November policy meeting, due for release Tuesday -- a day head of schedule because of the Thanksgiving holiday.

"We see stock traders taking a breather this Monday," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote.

"Consolidation and a minor downside correction is reasonable at the current levels."

The tech-rich Nasdaq index led gains in New York. In Europe, London and Frankfurt were little changed all day before ending slightly in the red, while Paris and Milan were marginally higher.

The Fed and European Central Bank kept their rates unchanged at their last meetings, pausing their hike campaign as inflation has cooled sharply in the United States and Europe.

The dollar continued its slide against the euro, with investors betting that US interest are more likely to fall than their European counterparts.

"The focus has shifted to when the Fed will start cutting rates," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at StoneX.

"Previously, the market was speculating this to start after the middle of next year at the earliest. But now, the market is attaching about a 30 percent chance of a first Fed rate cut taking place in March."

"I think that view is quite optimistic, but the Fed is likely to cut sooner than it had projected," he said.

Even so, inflation remains hugely elevated in some countries, including Argentina, where libertarian outsider Javier Milei swept to victory in a presidential election Sunday.

The self-described "anarcho-capitalist" has proposed dollarisation of the economy by 2025 to halt the "cancer of inflation" that has reached triple digits in the South American country.

Observers said they expected light trading on Wall street this week heading into the Thanksgiving holiday long weekend, with US markets closing on Thursday and finishing early on Friday.

Among companies, Microsoft shares were up 1.5 percent after the company hired OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman following his shock sacking from the startup, whose ChatGPT chatbot has led the rapid rise of artificial intelligence technology.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella wrote on X that Altman "will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team," along with OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman and other colleagues.

Elsewhere Monday, oil prices extended Friday's gains of more than four percent, before a meeting of OPEC and other key producers, where Russia and Saudi Arabia could extend output cuts.

- Key figures around 1730 GMT -

New York - Dow: UP 0.2 percent at 35,010.13 points

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 7,496.36 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.2 percent at 7,246.93 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.1 percent at 15,901.33 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: FLAT at 4,342.41 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.6 percent at 33,388.03 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 1.9 percent at 17,778.07 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,068.32 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0942 from $1.0916 on Friday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2495 from $1.2465

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 148.36 yen from 149.64 yen

Euro/pound: FLAT at 87.56 pence from 87.55 pence

Brent North Sea crude: UP 2.7 percent at $82.77 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.6 percent at $77.84 per barrel

A.Clark--AT