Arizona Tribune - US job growth misses expectations in January

The gains came despite several winter storms during the month and devastating fires in California, which analysts warned could weigh on the world's biggest economy temporarily.

Looking ahead, heightened tariff risks and plans for slowing immigration under Trump could also give businesses some pause as they mull further hiring, analysts said.

Total employment rose by 143,000 jobs last month, said the Labor Department, significantly lower than the revised 307,000 figure in December.

The January figure was also below an analyst consensus estimate of 155,000 according to Briefing.com.

Meanwhile, the jobless rate edged down to 4.0 percent from 4.1 percent, beating analyst expectations.

Wage growth was also better than analysts expected, at 0.5 percent, the report showed.

The data indicate the US economy remained relatively healthy heading into Trump's second presidential term, which began on January 20.

"Taken together, December and January payroll figures paint a strong picture of the economy," said Carl Weinberg and Mary Chen of High Frequency Economics.

They expect that with these figures, the US central bank would not be in a rush to cut interest rates.

- 'Wildcard' -

But "trade policy will likely be the biggest wildcard for 2025," said EY senior economist Lydia Boussour in a note this week.

"Steep tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty could push businesses to increasingly adopt wait-and-see behaviors and pull back on hiring as they navigate higher input costs and retaliatory measures," she warned.

This could lead to a more significant slowdown in hiring, weaker incomes and restrained consumer spending, she said.

Over the past weekend, Trump unveiled -- and then paused -- 25 percent tariffs on major US trading partners Canada and Mexico, which included a lower rate for Canadian energy imports.

But an additional 10 percent levy on Chinese imports, alongside a suspension of duty-free exemptions for low value goods, came into effect on Tuesday, triggering Beijing's announcement of retaliation.

Trump has also threatened tariffs on the European Union, and signaled he could target imports in sectors including semiconductors.

Ger Doyle, US country manager at ManpowerGroup, added in a note that "2025 is shaping up to be another year of significant changes."

"Our real-time data show total open job postings declined three percent, indicating a slight contraction in overall job demand," he said.

F.Wilson--AT